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Archive for May 1st, 2007

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Just in case you haven’t been reading all season (as if), let me reiterate that I am not very good with numbers. It took me this long to realize that my Excel sheet had not one, but two calculation errors that were skewing everyone’s numbers a bit low. One was in the steals category, and the other in runs scored, so I was punishing speedy players without meaning to. I’ve corrected the problem, so the leaderboard has changed a bit.

Of course, something I learned about my bastardized version of Similarity Scores is that it is very volatile early in the season. A player on a hot streak can fly up the board, like B.J. Upton did this week. Not to mention that Pence himself ranks very high simply by hitting well in two career games.

Each .001 of average and each .002 of slugging equal a full point in a prospect’s favor, so a hot weekend can move a guy 300 points up. In comparison, the standard for stolen bases is 20. Since Albert stole one whole base in 2001, someone like Alexi Casilla has to steal 21 before he can even gain one point out of the deal. I have the formula calculating decimals, so each base does count, but not all that much. When it comes right down to it, this game is all about matching Pujols’ .329 average and .61 slugging.

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A glance at the Leader Board will show a few personnel changes. Cory Kasto has been cast out by the Nationals, and Hunter Pence has been called up by the Astros. In his first seven Major League at-bats, Hunter was able to hit safely three times and score a run, so we’re cautiously optomistic that he’ll stick and play well. Our buddy Sunil was all over this back in March, and I borrowed the wobbly Zapruder highlight video from his site.

Hunter was hitting .571 in the spring, and maintained .341 at Triple-A Round Rock over the first 22 games, so this recall is not too surprising. He’s just too good to keep on the farm. I’ll keep an eye out for more info on Hunter, but for now, enjoy his relative nearness to Phat Albert. The following motivational image was sponsored by Billy Crystal:

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